Select the search type
 
  • Site
  • Web
Search
English   Srpski  Publishing Activities > Bankarstvo Journal > 2019 > 2 2019

Bankarstvo Journal issue 2 2019

In this issue

Editorial

Original scientific paper

  • Miloš Božović
    ARE THERE MACROECONOMIC PREDICTORS OF POINT-IN-TIME PD? RESULTS BASED ON DEFAULT RATE DATA OF THE ASB
    doi: 10.5937/bankarstvo1902012B
  • Summary: Internal models that banks use to assess the creditworthiness of their borrowers, as a rule, give estimates of the probability of default that cover the entire business cycle. For the purposes of applying IFRS 9, however, estimates of the probability of default for a specific moment, as well as the inclusion of different macroeconomic scenarios are required. Such estimates are based primarily on the calculation of the effects of the business cycle, and therefore involve the existence of a provable link between macroeconomic indicators and realized default rates. In this paper we analyze whether this relationship exists using the data of banks operating in Serbia. We use several different approaches to determine this link: linear regression, autoregressive process, error correction model, static and dynamic panel-data models, as well as two Bayesian approaches. On the whole sample, the error correction model shows the best performance and gives the factors of acceptable economic intuition. When data are divided by the type of product, we obtain somewhat less reliable results, which is partly due to the dominant influence of the SME segment in the total default rates. As the most robust predictors of default rates we identify the lagged differences in these rates, the reference rate of the National Bank of Serbia and the growth rate of gross domestic product.

    Keywords: credit risk, probability of default, macroeconomic factors

    JEL: G21, C22, M41

Original scientific paper

  • Almir alihodžić
    MARKET CONCENTRATION OF BANKS AND UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE BANK MARKETS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA AND SERBIA
    doi: 10.5937/bankarstvo1902032A
  • Summary: The paper focuses on researching the relationship between the concentration of the banking systems of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia and the impact of employment/unemployment in both countries. The main tasks and objectives of the research are to determine the impact of internal bank factors on employment/unemployment and to identify the effects of internal factors on the unemployment rate. In this survey, we used the unemployment rate as the dependent variable, while the HHI index of concentration, the rate of growth of total banking assets, the growth rate of liquid assets relative to total assets will be used as independent variables. In order to study the cointegration of variables, the method of automatic regression distribution, as well as the method of correlation and regression, were used. The research period covers the period from 2008q1 to 2018q4. The results of the survey showed that the most significant impact of reducing unemployment could be exerted by the following independent variables: the growth rate of total loans, the growth rate of banking assets, the concentration of loans and deposits (especially the case of banks in B&H). On the other hand, the excessive volume of liquid assets to total assets above the legal minimum can have a negative impact on economic growth and employment.

    Keywords: stationarity, Hirschmann-Herfindahl index, unemployment rate, lending activity

    JEL: E5, G21, J64

Scientific review article

  • Dragan Stojković, Stevan Luković
    THE PROSPECTS OF CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT TEN YEARS AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
    doi: 10.5937/bankarstvo1902062S
  • Summary: The paper discusses the prospects of the global capital market at the end of 2018, that is, ten years after the onset of the global financial crisis. Bearing in mind that the United States and China are the world's largest economies, with a combined share in the global gross domestic product of approximately 40%, the analysis is focused on these two major and systemically important economies. Also, the paper points to the most important macroeconomic problems that have accumulated in the observed ten-year period. The financial difficulties faced by the world's leading economies greatly limit the ability of governments to intervene and provide assistance in the event of new global financial shocks.

    Keywords: capital market, global financial crisis, public debt, non-financial corporate debt, economic growth

    JEL: G01, G15, H63, O43

Scientific review article

  • Svetlana Pantelić
    THE 10-DINAR BANKNOTE - THE LAST BANKNOTE OF THE KINGDOM OF SCS AND THE FIRST BANKNOTE OF THE KINGDOM OF YUGOSLAVIA
    doi: 10.5937/bankarstvo1902082P
  • Summary: The last issued banknote of the Kingdom of SCS is the 10-dinar one, the permanent second edition Type 1 banknote. It bears the date 26.5.1926, and it was released into circulation as of 25.7.1928. The same banknote, but dated 1.12.1929, was released into circulation on 21.1.1931, marked as Type 2 banknote. Both banknotes have the same size, drawings and colours, the only differences being: the title of the National Bank which is the NB of the Kingdom of SCS on the first one, and the NB of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia on the second one; the members of the Management Board of the NB and the governor, instead of D. K. Protić, the second banknote features Andrija Radović, while Đorđe Vajfert was replaced by Ignjat Bajloni. Type 1 banknotes were produced at the Banque de France, and Type 2 in the newly established Institute for Manufacturing Banknotes and Coins of the National Bank of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia.

    Keywords: 10-dinar banknote, National Bank of the Kingdom of SCS, National Bank of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, Dr Milan Stojadinović, Ignjat Bajloni, Đorđe Vajfert, Institute for Manufacturing Banknotes and Coins

    JEL: N14

Book review

Barometer


Register   |  Login